The Future of Jobs: The Impacts of AI, the Green Transition

Christiane: Hello, everyone.

Welcome to "Amanpour and Company."

Here's what's coming up.

>> We want to create these just coalitions.

>> We are training Ukrainian citizens to become combat ready.

Aircraft pilots.

Christiane: Pilot fighter training for Ukraine, as President Zelenskyy drums up European support for his counteroffensive.

Meantime, as Brazil accuses Europe and the U.S. for fueling fighting in Ukraine, I ask Brazil's Foreign Minister if his president's plan to play peacemaker holds up.

And democracy on the ballot as Turkey heads into its first presidential runoff.

Why the outcome of this election matters to the wider world.

>> We find that 1/4 of all jobs will be affected in some form or the other.

Christiane: As technology and climate upend the global economy, we explore the future of jobs with the managing director of the World Economic Forum Saadia Zahidi.

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Christiane: Welcome to the program, everyone.

I'm Christiane Amanpour.

Today we look at global developments that could impact the war of aggression in Ukraine and shape alliances from Europe to the Americas.

We begin with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's lightning tour of Western capitals.

Over the weekend he met first with Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who promised Germany's biggest military support package so far, almost $3 billion worth of weapons, then to France and President Macron, who announced plans to send dozens of tanks and armored vehicles in the weeks ahead.

Today, President Zelenskyy landed in England, meeting the Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak.

Zelenskyy's tour comes at a critical time as countries like Brazil and Turkey and China look to assert themselves on the diplomatic scene.

We will have more on that in a moment.

But first, our correspondent, Matthew Chance, in London.

How come the Brits are so way ahead of I guess NATO and what they are giving Zelenskyy and what they are pledging?

>> I guess it is politically expedient for Rishi Sunak and his predecessors to show themselves to be at the forefront of leading the defense or help in Ukraine defend itself.

They are certainly doing that.

They provided these Storm Shadow cruise missiles that Ukraine now has in his arsenal -- the longest range weapon Ukraine has in its arsenal.

Today, there was a warm embrace between Rishi Sunak and the British prime minister, Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine as well, as yet more weapons were pledged, long-distance attack drones, air defense missiles, training for Ukrainian pilots as well.

Because one of the things that President Zelenskyy wants not just from Britain but from other European powers and the U.S. as well are fighter jets, so they can really strike hard at Russian occupied areas of his country.

Take a listen to what the leaders had to say on that issue earlier today.

>> The jets are a very important topic for us.

We can't control the sky, you know it.

Rishi knows what goes on in our battlefield.

Thank you very much.

We want to create these jet coalitions.

>> One thing we want to do relatively soon as the training of Ukrainian pilots and that is something we have discussed today and we are ready to implement those plans in relatively short order which will mean that we are training Ukrainian citizens to become absolutely combat ready aircraft pilots.

>> Combat ready aircraft pilots but stopping short of actually pledging aircraft.

They didn't get that.

The Ukrainians have not got that from any European powers so far.

Even though as you mentioned, they have had very generous military donations from the Germans, the 3 billion-dollar military aid package in the form of tanks and armored vehicles, Italian support as well as friends.

They will get the tanks -- France.

It will get the tanks and long-distance weapons they need to when this will.

Christiane: Thank you, Matthew, as we await the counteroffensive.

As president Zelenskyy seeks promises of Western support, Brazil is taking a different tact.

President Lula da Silva refuses to send arms to Ukraine and claims they are prolonging the fighting.

Foreign Minister, I asked him about his president's views troubling NATO allies.

Foreign Minister, welcome to the program.

>> Thank you very much for inviting me.

Christiane: There is a huge show these last few days of European support for President Zelenskyy, including a lot of new military support.

Your president recently said that the EU, the U.S., NATO essentially should stop supplying Ukraine and should end the war, not prolong it.

Is that your position still?

>> The position of the president is very clear, we have voted in favor of the resolution that condemns the invasion.

What President Lula has repeatedly said is that it is time to stop speaking about war and discussing peace.

He has condemned the war at the beginning and now he asks for the beginning of negotiations, of peace.

Christiane: That means that you believe, then, that you would disagree, you would oppose what the Europeans are doing and promising right now this weekend.

>> No, we do not disapprove anything.

We just insist that it is necessary to sit down and talk.

We are ready to join other countries that have contact with both sides and promote some kind of discussion that would lead to a cease-fire.

That would lead to talks about peace and relieving the suffering of the populations.

Christiane: Can I play for you a little bit of the interview that I was able to do with President Lula when he came earlier this year to Washington for a White House visit with President Biden?

I asked him specifically about this idea of diplomacy.

This is what he told me.

>> I am highly committed.

What I believe is that in the case of Ukraine and Russia, it is necessary to have someone talking about peace.

It is necessary that we should build out talk with the different parties that are in confrontation.

That is my thesis.

We need to show President Putin the mistake he made to invade the Ukrainian territory.

We have to talk more to avoid this war.

We have to stop the war.

Christiane: So Foreign Minister, so far it doesn't appear publicly anyway that there has been any success with that route.

What do you have to show for this idea of trying to get negotiations underway?

>> Well, diplomacy is like that, it takes time, you have to sit down and negotiate and talk.

The other leaders and other heads of state are saying the same.

Joining Brazil and other countries.

So it will take time, but when the time is right, I think this would be a very important contribution to the situation and the solution of the situation.

Christiane: I think everybody would like to see the war end, but of course the question is on what terms?

Again I need to ask you.

Because all the NATO allies are trying to figure out Brazil's very powerful coalition of countries and what you intend to do.

Brazil hosted Sergey Lavrov, a chief adviser went to Moscow, the Ukrainians got very upset, they wanted president Lula's chief advisers, they went to Kyiv, the idea is that they believe you are taking Russia's rationale for this war and putting the onus on Ukraine.

>> No, this is not the right interpretation.

We have condemned as I said in the beginning the invasion of the Russian territory.

I immediately started talking about peace.

He only hears references to weapons and sending weapons.

But as to our position, it is very clear.

We have contact with both sides.

President Lula has spoken with the president of the Russian Federation and Ukraine.

I have spoken and received here in Brazil the Foreign Minister of Russia, Lavrov.

I met and spoke on the phone with the Foreign Minister of Ukraine.

And president Lula sent his special advisor of foreign affairs to meet both the president of Russia and the Foreign Minister and the president of Ukraine and his Foreign Minister.

So, we are not siding with one country against the other or the other way around.

We are talking and giving our contribution and trying to convince those two countries involved, with which we have direct communications, the need to sit down and negotiate.

That is what we are driving at.

Christiane: Ok, I just want to put up this picture, from the Ukrainian deputy foreign affairs minister.

When he went and met him.

He says the Ukrainian, we are slowly changing the mood between Ukraine and Brazil.

Do you see any area for negotiations?

And do you believe the groundwork right now is fertile for negotiation.

That is fair?

>> As I mentioned before, we voted for this UN resolution that condemned the invasion.

And following the period of negotiation, we proposed to insert a paragraph on cessation of hostilities.

I think this is an important contribution.

And this is -- the reference to cessation of hostility is to begin to talk.

Of course we are ready to continue in discussing.

But you know the diplomatic times are longer than chronological times.

And it takes time and so many other negotiations.

On wars during the last century, they took long amounts.

So I think this is the basis -- the starting point for negotiations.

Christiane: I need to ask you also about what appears to be a bit of hypocrisy here.

You don't want to send weapons to Ukraine no matter how much they ask.

But the New York Times reports, and your country is a big producer of warplanes, your country has proved willing to sell to other warring nations since the beginning of the year many war in 2014 Brazil has supplied--Yemeni war in 2014 Brazil has applied more than 21,000 tons of arms and ammunition worth hundreds of millions of dollars, including internationally condemned cluster munitions, that is according to trade data.

So why do you say yes to Saudi Arabia for a war in Yemen and no to Ukraine which is trying to defend itself from a war of aggression that you have already condemned?

>> First of all, this is export by private companies, it is not the state sending arms.

This is the first one.

And secondly, we are not the only ones to sell weapons to other countries.

We are not that big an exporter and producer.

But it's done by private companies.

Christiane: It appears that the United States is getting a little bit irritated with Brazil for its position on Ukraine.

Does that concern you?

>> We never received any special message.

President Lula spoke and met with President Biden.

I have been in touch with the Foreign Secretary of State of the United States, Tony Blinken.

We have discussed these issues very frequently and in detail so that we can learn more about each other's position.

Christiane: I want to ask you to address criticism that was leveled by the economist.

Much of the Democratic world welcomed president Lula's reelection on all sorts of issues, on climate, rejoining the community of democratic nations after the experience with his predecessor.

And yet, they say in the economist, the world has changed, it is a much more polarized world, it is very different than the one president Lula left.

And whether it is on Ukraine or on Taiwan, they say it appears president Lula's foreign policy is a bit naive.

How would you -- Comment on that.

Especially as you say that China should have a big role in helping defuse the Ukraine situation.

Most believe China is on Russia's side.

>> Well, I don't think that the remark that our foreign policy or the current position is naive.

He has met with so many heads of state.

Up until now he has met with 22 different heads of state.

He is going this week to Japan, to Hiroshima for the G7 summit to which he was invited, to the outreach segment by Japan.

That will bring this total number close to 30 or 26, 28 heads of state that he has been meeting.

I don't believe they are naive.

And since they wanted to meet with President Lula, and we have had very good and deep discussions, I think this only helps to understand better the world and understand better positions and especially to enhance our relations, bilateral relations with all those countries.

Christiane: Can I ask you a domestic question?

Because the climate is such a mess of, obviously a huge rule, are you set aside with the pace of trying to stop deforestation?

Reuters is saying understaffed agencies face a bureaucratic battle to hire staff, a violent battle against criminals emboldened by Bolsonaro.

How fast do you think you are able to achieve your goal of stopping for instance illegal deforestation?

>> Well, the president is totally engaged in his environmental policy.

And also sustainable development policy.

This is a part of his domestic policy.

Of his program of government, and also of the foreign policy.

He is working very hard, and I think in four months and a half since he took office, a lot was done.

He is doing restructure.

He is doing a restructuring.

So many of the good people, the good officials that we had, specialists, technicians, he will rebuild those bodies of the state under the ministry of environment.

Environmental policy changed completely.

President Lula was invited to COP 27 in Egypt, and he delivered voluntarily at this occasion a very important speech, in which he assumed very important commitments and engagements with relation to the goals of his environmental policy.

I think he can do and is doing a good job in this area.

Christiane: Foreign Minister, thank you very much for joining us.

>> Thank you very much for inviting me for this conversation.

Christiane: Elections in Turkey could also have an impact on Western support for Ukraine.

Though Turkey is part of NATO, its diplomatic and economic ties to Russia under President Erdogan have caused tension within the alliance.

Erdogan like has Brazil and counterpart calls for the immediate cessation of the Ukraine war.

Now though he is on the political fight of his life.

In a fiercely contested election, he faces criticism over Egypt's troubled economy and negligence following the earthquake in February.

After Sunday's vote, Erdogan holds a slight edge over the opposition candidate.

What were the final first-round results and when is the runoff?

>> Going into this election, there was this expectation it was going to be a very tight race and that President Erdogan was facing as you mentioned the toughest election he has faced in more than 20 years.

But he defied expectations coming out with just over 49% of the vote.

Neither president Erdogan or the opponent got the threshold required to win the presidency so this is headed towards that runoff, officially announced today, for May 28th.

This is not victory for Erdogan.

He has used to victories very well.

But this is a certain win for the president despite all the issues that people blame him for in this country, whether it is the state of the economy, which every person you speak to in this country is struggling to deal with.

Or the response that he got a lot of criticism for when it comes to the devastating earthquake back in February and the government's lack of preparedness, as many have criticized them for.

He still managed to get nearly 50% of the vote.

For the opposition, this was a serious blow.

They really were hoping this was going to be different.

They believed that coming together, this united front of these diverse opposition parties was -- and the promise of change, the promise of bringing real democracy back to Turkey, that this was going to be enough to unseat President Erdogan.

But clearly it has not.

Take a listen to what the leader of the opposition said today.

>> I am here.

I am here.

You are here, too.

I will fight until the end.

I swear.

I know I will fight until the end.

I am here.

Christiane: Both sides are really determined to take this fight to the second round.

If you look at the results, it really is a reflection of the state.

The state of polarization in this country on this deeply divided country.

Christiane: The opposition leader really did sound determined there.

What are international observers saying about how the election is being run, is their talk of the fact that of course the Erdogan party has a majority of the state institutions at his disposal?

>> That has been the issue many Turks will tell you, the issue of campaigning.

That this is not a level playing field when it comes to the opposition versus the president and his ruling party.

We are hearing from the international observers and others releasing a statement today saying that the actual vote itself, the process was managed well.

There was really high turnout, nearly 90% according to the Turkish government, the Turkish electoral board's figures that came out.

People were really presented with two genuine political alternatives.

It is the lead up to these elections that is the issue.

It is the campaigning here that is not fair, according to observers.

We have so many politicians who are behind bars.

You have got political parties that have been criminalized.

You have got journalists behind bars.

It is the issue of campaigning they say that is not fair.

They say that these campaigning conditions are not fair.

They don't exist.

They give the president and his party really an unjustified position here.

When it comes to the actual campaigning.

As we have heard from so many people in this country, they say Turkish democracy is still alive at the ballot box and this is the only way that people feel they can have their voices heard in this country and have their say in the direction their country takes.

This is what you saw this really high turnout yesterday and we will see what happens on May 28 when they return back to the polls.

Christiane: Indeed.

That's going to be really interesting.

It's the first ever runoff.

They only introduced them a few years ago and this is the first time.

Jomana Karadsheh, we will be looking out.

We have an expert on Turkish politics at the Brookings Institution joining us from Istanbul.

Despite for the first time having this rather organized coalition to oppose President Erdogan and to try to really for the first time make some inroads into his 20 year rule, so far they have not managed.

Do you think that will change in the runoff?

>> Well, I think the opposition goes into a runoff with with a disadvantage.

Erdogan has a 4.5% lead.

There's a third party candidate who might strike a deal with President Erdogan.

In any case, there's no guarantee that his voters will follow the opposition candidate.

There is a huge disappointment in the opposition camp today.

There's good news and bad news for them.

The good news is that, in big cities, nearly all big cities, people have voted for change.

So the opposition candidate has done better.

But in the conservative heartland, President Erdogan has consolidated.

Not just in the countryside but also the more conservative areas of big cities.

Even in the earthquake zone.

He seems to have consolidated by way of triggering perhaps a reflex.

The opposition candidate had a minority background.

That seems to have served as a glass ceiling.

Many pollsters turned out to be wrong and were hugely disappointed.

President Erdogan's votes are down to where they were in 2002.

So the party is not doing that well.

But he managed to get very close to the threshold and I think it would be difficult to imagine him not getting there in the second round.

Elections are unpredictable but he starts off with an advantage.

Christiane: He does.

You mentioned the parliamentary vote went very heavily in favor of his party.

Now, we know from the outside what an Erdogan presidency and Prime Minister looks like.

What would the opposition's position, their platform, what would that have done to Turkey?

How different would it be?

>> I think undoubtedly, it would've meant a lurch towards the West.

Their major platform, their primary goal was restoring democracy.

There was a very severe backsliding.

Jomana, before I came on, described some of the issues.

Young people tell you they cannot breathe -- because of restrictions, they feel they cannot say what they want to sale social media.

Or there is a monopoly of the government and media.

And of course judiciary.

So the first order of business was described as democracy.

I think that would've improved relations with Europe and the United States.

The opposition leader also said he wants to improve Turkey's relations with NATO, the U.S. and Europe.

One of the things they hoped, this was the last chance for Turkey, was to go to Brussels and knock on Europe's door and say, is there a part of that old succession process to the European Union that we can resuscitate?

And I think the answer, we don't know what the answer would've been.

But it would've been possible, easier under a Turkey that undergoes reforms, it would've been easier to start a new relationship with Europe.

Now that opportunity may not be there.

But of course, Turkey is a big power and if Erdogan wins, people in Washington and Brussels and other countries will have to start thinking of what kind of a new relationship, a more stable and new relationship they can have with Turkey.

Christiane: Let's take Erdogan's own words.

This is kind of the two sides we are sparring over, the Ukraine war and who supports Russia more and who doesn't.

President Erdogan had this to say about that, speaking directly about the opposition.

>> Russia is one of our most important allies in the agricultural products.

There is an influx of tourists right now.

Nearly 5.5 million tourists come from Russia.

What will you do with it?

Are you going to do it on the orders you get from America?

Are you going to do it on instructions from Biden?

Biden instructed, would have to topple Erdogan.

I know that.

All of my people know that.

Christiane: So, let's break down that last thing about Biden.

That does not bode well, if they are spinning conspiracy theories already, the president himself spinning that Biden wants to topple Erdogan, as he says.

>> This was a consistent theme in this election.

Actually not in this election but for a number of years now, they've been saying they are trying to bring him down, they are trying to prevent Turkey's inevitable rise.

They even talked about encirclement of Turkey by the United States, when he was describing new U.S.-Greek relationships.

He has brought the country I think to a very anti-American place.

This is not to say he is wrong on every issue.

But the truth is the country is far more anti-American today than it was.

Having said all that, I think he's trying to do a balancing act between the West and Russia.

I don't think he wants Turkey to be a Russian vessel.

He has a good relationship with Vladimir Putin.

A good personal relationship with Vladimir Putin.

There is a lot of trade.

Turkey has not gone with Western sanctions.

In fact, they hugely increased trade with Russia.

I think this is going to be his legacy.

He thinks of Turkey as a country that should be a poll in itself, a rising power, it is destined to be a great power in the 21st century.

His campaign is called the century of Turkey, the 21st century is going to be the century of Turkey.

And I think he's going to continue this theme of Turkey as a nonaligned power, a rising power that can have a foot in each camp, but not necessarily be the sort of loyal transatlantic ally that it used to be 20 years ago.

Christiane: Despite all of this, Turkey is at its most anti-American point in a long time, Erdogan did act as a mediator for instance to try to get and did get that grain deal unstuck at least for a while between Russia and Ukraine.

But of course the Biden administration has made largely defending democracy the hallmark of its global foreign policy.

Turkey as an ally.

Is Turkey an illiberal democracy?

>> It is illiberal but also competitive.

There is an uneven playing field but Erdogan won yesterday.

It did not magically appear in ballots and televisions.

He campaigned in city after city.

Sometimes using a very negative campaign.

Sometimes using other campaign tactics that he has seen Donald Trump use.

But there is no denying the fact that this is a competitive illiberal system.

One of that the opposition manages perhaps to put forward someone more charismatic or more of a match for Erdogan, they could win.

I think you will see the Turkish people generally have this faith that it can happen.

Christiane: Right.

>> Relations with the U.S. will be a challenge.

So for the Biden administration has kept Turkey more or less at an arm's distance in part because of exactly what you said.

It just does not fit in the democracy versus authoritarian framing.

It does not fit in the right camp.

But I think there's going to be some soul-searching.

Because here is Turkey, right to the south of Ukraine, with Russia, the Middle East, and Europe in the intersection of all these issues, they want to have a stable relationship.

Christiane: Let me just follow up finally.

The opposition candidate said, the members of his opposition coalition who I spoke to said they, too, would keep up trade relations with Russia.

But he has now said, the opposition candidate has said that he is concerned about the actual again level or unlevel playing field going into this runoff.

Here's what he said.

>> My dear people, the party members are trying to block with repeated objections at the ballot boxes where our vote rates are significantly high.

To give an example, their persistent objections to 300 ballot boxes in Ankara and Istanbul.

There are ballot boxes of which the results were contested six times and some 11 times.

What you block is the will of Turkey.

Christiane: Is that a legitimate fear?

>> I think people generally feel that in the end, when the counting and recounting and further counting is done, everybody's numbers even out.

Yes, it is an uneven playing field.

And there is a sort of monopoly, or repressive mood.

But I think that at the end of the whole process, on the day of elections, the voting generally comes out and discounted.

Christiane: We will see what happens in about two weeks.

Thank you so much indeed for joining us.

Turning to the future of the workforce, the World Economic Forum published its latest employment report that found nearly a quarter of jobs are expected to change in the next four years with AI and automation changing the landscape.

What does the future hold for workers?

To discuss which sectors will see the largest changes, here we have Hari Sreenivasan.

>> We tried to look at what is happening in terms of geopolitical shifts and how supply chains are relocating.

We tried to look at the green transition and what that means for jobs.

Overall we find about a quarter of all jobs will be affected in some form of the other.

23% will be affected.

12% will decline or disappear.

And 10% that will be growing.

Largely speaking that is on average a similar amount that is going to be declining and similar account that is going to be going.

Hari: I can do basic math and that still leaves a couple of percentages short.

Are there specific sectors that will be more greatly impacted in this kind of churn?

>> There's about 14 million jobs that that 2% difference translates into.

And it is very clear it is the roles where previously there was a lot of concern about the robot revolution and about industrial robots and what that was going to do two jobs in factories.

A lot of our previous reports have seen what will happen on those sectors.

What we are seeing this time as there is much more concerned about what will happen due to the rise of algorithms and generative artificial intelligence.

The types of roles expected to be displaced.

People who are bank tellers.

People who are administrative assistants and secretaries.

There's a lot of growth expected for those folks that are able to do machine learning and data analysis.

People who are warning in sustainability and ESG and roles that are the carbonation of the climate transition and technology.

>> So there is a huge amount of rescaling necessary to employ those people who might be displaced?

How does that happen?

>> There is some element of this that falls on the worker themselves.

That is where workers will have to continue to be skilling themselves.

Lifelong learning has to become a reality.

But there's another element.

At the scale this is currently happening and the speed with which this is currently happening, governments will have to put a lot more investment towards setting up the actual operating system around rescaling and upscaling.

If we look towards economies like Denmark, that have had this for a very long time, they've brought three things together -- the constant learning, the rescaling, but they tied that up to income support when somebody is in between jobs.

And they tied that up to career support and job centers that can actually help somebody transition to a new role.

It is a combination of three things and not just rescaling and upscaling.

>> When you look at the conversation around artificial intelligence and generative AI, there seems to be a lot of -- more on the fear side of things on what this will do the different sectors of white-collar jobs.

Where is a potential that you are seeing for the new jobs that perhaps we are not envisioning yet?

>> There is all possible disruptions that have taken place in the past.

There's always been more job creation, net job creation, even this time, despite those fears, we found 50% of companies still expect generative AI to be a net job creator.

25% of companies expect it to be a net job destroyer.

The other 25% are essentially undecided.

There is still this net positive effect.

Those were roles out for a long time were predicted as coming under displacement.

Exactly to your point, it is now a set of relatively high skilled, middle income, middle-class roles that are going to come under this type of new displacement.

When we speak to businesses that are actually integrating some of these technologies, they are finding most of the time this is not about full displacement.

It is about augmentation.

The same person will continue to do some version of those tasks, but they will be integrating more technology and expected to apply more creative thinking, more analytical thinking, more leadership, more social influence, more connecting with other people.

There some possibility this had stores augmentation but that is back to then rescaling and upscaling.

That has to be provided by employers themselves.

Hari: And developing economies, we have seen a disconnect in developing economies, we have seen a disconnect.

these sort of layoffs that are happening at the same time.

Especially in the digital and tech side.

>> In advanced economies, there's a hangover from COVID in particular where a number of people have chosen to drop out of the workforce, in some cases permanently.

Some people have chosen to relocate to other locations and now their workplaces are asking them to come back.

Some people in the health care sector feel burnt out or not treated well during the time they were having to work after very high degrees of stress.

Some people in-service work who were potentially fully laid off during that time and are being asked to come back are simply not interested in coming back in such a difficult environment.

They have ruled themselves up for some time and that is leading to those talent shortages.

There's a second element to the talent shortages.

Which is skills.

The types of roles companies are looking for right now, especially at the higher skilled end of the White collar workforce, these are roles in data management.

These are people working in machine learning and solar panel installers.

These are people with very technical skills.

That is something that simply doesn't exist in the numbers that companies are looking for.

That is really causing some of this fragmentation where companies are looking for talent and at the same time laying off those roles that they simply don't need anymore.

Hari: I wonder if these companies are doing themselves a disservice by laying off workers instead of reskilling them.

>> Many companies are starting to find out that the rapid decisions they took in terms of layoffs, especially workers that were service workers during the time of the pandemic, and now that they are having to search for that talent, it may have been better to keep those workers on and keep some level of connection and loyalty with those workers.

Because it actually ends up being cheaper and more efficient for them in the long term to keep those workers on.

Most companies expect to have within a year relatively high returns from reskilling investments.

Keeping the worker on rather than laying off in most cases.

That is how companies will learn through the economic downturn.

Hari: Talking about the green sector and the transition we are all in, where do you see the largest amount of potential?

Is it the agricultural sector?

The fossil fuels sector?

>> This has been one of the bright spots in the report in terms of being a net job creator.

The green transition we are in the midst of.

The types of jobs that it is creating are very widely dispersed.

They don't sit across one sector.

Most companies are looking for people broadly specialized in sustainability.

Sustainability specialists.

A second element is specific technical rules like people who are working in solar energy.

A third element is somebody working in waste management and in the circular economy.

Very different skill sets across very different functions and many different industries.

There is high potential for growth.

These are not necessarily all high skilled roles.

Hari: It seems like health care is one of the areas in the report here that seems like it has a massive increase on the way because no amount of generative AI will be able to replace physical human contact, if that is what is necessary in providing care.

>> Yeah.

This is going to be one of the sectors that governments in particular will have to watch around the world, advanced and developing economies alike.

Because on the one hand, there will be a huge move for greater workforce in health care.

Because there is higher demand.

And there will be a huge need for greater eldercare, childcare.

The entire care sector will be in much higher demand than it was before.

On the other hand, very few younger people want to go into the sector because they have observed how the sector is generally underpaid, yet is in high demand.

It is qualified as essential work but not necessarily valued as such by society.

I think we will face a major talent crunch in that sector and governments will quite seriously have to look at elevating wages and working conditions in that sector.

Hari: I wonder how this impacts higher education or what we see as signs of a credential these days.

If a new set of skills are necessary and perhaps you don't need to go to school for four years, do employees see that change happening, allowing certified individuals to come in that don't have the college track?

>> Some digital companies and some companies that have more technical rules, because they are facing a shortage of talent, they are starting to look this way.

In general, economy wide, most countries will have to start to do this because it makes no sense to look at somebody's credentials from 20 or 30 years ago when you are trying to bring in that experienced worker, nor to simply look at which organization they looked for in the past but to actually assess, what are their skills?

And to bring them in on the basis of those skills.

There's an interesting opportunity here because if you start looking at people with a sort of skills first mindset, it creates a lot more opportunity for those without college degrees to potentially come from lower income backgrounds.

It creates more opportunity for women and minorities.

That is starting to show up in some of the data.

Hari: You wrote a book a while back on the rise of working women in the Western world.

I'm sure it is something that's personal and important to you.

In 2018, you became the youngest managing director at the World Economic Forum.

As these transitions have happened, through the pandemic and beyond, where do you see that growth happening?

Whether it is women in the Muslim world or younger women entering the workforce, is it becoming better, more equal, still slow?

Better in certain parts of the world?

What do you see?

>> Every year, we produce a report and try to benchmark how that gender gap is evolving.

It's very clear there was a hit to the gender gap during COVID.

Because the types of roles that were disrupted tended to be the types of roles that women had been earning good middle-class livelihoods from.

Because a lot of the growth and the roles were around technology and digital rules, which tend not to be large pools of women going into them.

And finally third because the care structure simply didn't exist to balance working from home and being able to continue with two income households.

There was a massive disruption.

We are starting to see some recovery from it.

That disruption applied equally in the Muslim world as it did elsewhere.

But we are starting to see some recovery including in the U.S. and places like the UAE and places like India.

There is starting to be some shift but there's going to need to be at least a generations worth of recovery compared to where we were free COVID.

Hari: How fast do you see some of these sort of predictions coming true?

What kind of impact are we going to see on the global labor market?

>> As much as we are talking about the green transition and technology adoption, the biggest threat to jobs is actually due to the economic downturn we are currently in.

The specific trend is the slowing economic growth, rising costs, reducing consumption from people.

And the rising cost of inputs into production in most companies.

That is likely to be the biggest threat.

Hari: You are a trained economist, do you see the signs necessary to protect a global recession is on the way?

In the U.S. we have been hearing about a potential recession waiting for the other shoe to drop for almost a year and a half.

>> Policymakers have been taking a number of actions to prevent things from heading in that direction.

Yet at the same time we have not quite seen advances either.

We launched our chief economist Outlook which surveys a number of economists from around the world in different sectors, and interestingly 45% of them are expecting a global recession and exactly 45% of them are expecting to bypass and avoid a recession.

There's just enormous amounts of uncertainty in the data and we don't necessarily know.

Of course policymakers are putting in place a lot of efforts.

And that is helping keep this middle ground.

Hari: On rights, there is no doubt the future of work will be disrupted but it need not be dystopian.

What do we need to do to ensure that these changes in the job market is a healthy transition?

>> One element is responsible employers.

They have to ensure they are investing more in reskilling and also think about, is it better to be keeping the loyalty and energy of my workforce and for some time sacrifice short-term efficiency for the longer-term shift towards a highly productive motivated and innovative workforce because I'm going to invest in their skills?

That is something employers will very seriously have to think about.

Because they are not simple to be able to go to the market and buy talent for what they are looking for.

Much more investment is one piece of this.

Governments are truly thinking through.

Industrial policy is back in vogue across much of the Western world.

If governments expect to be serious about investing in the digital transition and in the green transition, they equally have to invest in the skills that are required to make that happen.

Those systems will be critical.

A third element is workers themselves and also younger people.

Those in secondary school.

It is clear already they have to think about technological literacy and leadership and social influence skills and they have to think about analytical and creativity skills.

Regardless of the subjects that they choose across what they do, which degrees they pick.

They have to have those general skill sets.

Hari: Thanks so much for joining us.

Christiane: Finally, job skills with a twist.

Brazil's struggling to protect the Amazon while nearby Chile is testing a creative solution to save its own forests from wildfires-- goats.

They graze on dry vegetation that lights easily.

Our their other end is enriching droppings for soil.

With the park being the only green spot left amid the fires, according to the initiative's cofounder.

The goats might be going global, with similar schemes underway in California, Portugal, and Spain.

That is it for our program tonight.

If you want to find out what is coming up on the show every night, sign up for our newsletter at PBS.org, #AmanpourPBS.