TEACHER: One, two, three, four, five, six corners.

Six corners, six sides, it's a hexagon!

And a table!

ELIZABETH: In 2013, OPB set out to document the stories of 27 Oregon students.

Will you go with me?

ELIZABETH: Starting when they were in kindergarten.

Learning how to share.

Learning how to count.

And after the state set an aspirational goal to have 100% of Oregon students graduate from high school by the year 2025.

If successful, Oregon would catapult its rock-bottom national ranking to the top.

But is 100% realistic?

What do the kids think is possible?

Getting to my goals, I feel like I can definitely do.

Doing what I need to do to get to a better place, get myself in a better place.

So I can get an education and I can go to college and get a good job.

I'm Elizabeth Miller, OPB'S education reporter.

"That could impact their chances of graduation."

I'll be exploring why getting to graduation is so challenging in Oregon, and follow these students as their story unfolds in the next few years.

This is the "Class of 2025".

[car horns beeping] [upbeat music] It's June 2021.

Amazing!

Thank you!

ELIZABETH: The Class of 2025 is celebrating eighth grade graduation, Covid-style.

Most of the students I'm following will go to David Douglas High School in Southeast Portland.

To prepare for freshman year, David Douglas offers summer classes for incoming students.

The program is called Ninth Grade Counts.

MIKE: The freshman will come in and it's just the freshman, and they are given a school tour, they go through a bunch of activities.

ELIZABETH: Mike Costello is a teacher at David Douglas.

He knows the knows the transition from middle school to high school can be stressful.

You are now one of 2,600, versus being one of a couple hundred at their middle school.

So they're being held accountable grade-wise, there's more social pressures than there has ever been on them before.

They're trying to fit in, they're trying to be successful, they're trying to figure out who they are.

So coming in as a freshman, it's pretty pressure-packed.

Like you know, walking in first day knowing nothing like "Err, what?"

ELIZABETH: Anais struggled during remote learning at home, but at the end of eighth grade, she was able to go back to school a couple days a week.

As a freshman in a new school, how will full time in-person learning go for her?

So like, I kind of feel more confident, knowing where the the classes are and stuff, and I already have new friends, so It's been kind of easier having already a friend group there.

It's been nice to meet other kids that I didn't know that went to other school, so yeah, it's a pretty fun experience to just get to know them.

ELIZABETH: Josh has been looking forward to high school, but he knows it comes with more pressure and higher expectations.

You know, they're gonna be pushing you a lot harder, a lot more 'cause they want you to graduate.

ELIZABETH: It remains to be seen just how Covid has impacted Oregon's graduation goal for 2025, but it's already caused setbacks.

The current graduation rate across the state is about 81%.

That's an increase of nine percentage points since 2014, but a 2% decrease since before the pandemic.

And Oregon still ranks at the bottom nationally.

So is 100% graduation by 2025 still possible?

I think especially with Covid, with everything that's happened, like I love the goal, it's a great idea, but if we're being completely realistic, it's probably not gonna happen.

Why is getting every student to graduate unrealistic?

They all have challenges in their lives, but students like Ali want to graduate and have successful careers after high school.

Ooh, that sounds interesting.

My future is on my mind quite a lot, because I don't know, I think it's really important, and my parents care about it too and I really wanna do well in the future and make a good amount of money for my future family and everyone.

I'll see you tomorrow.

[bus rumbles] It's now September 2021, and the class is starting high school.

[lively music] I wanna know how the kids I'm following are feeling today.

What's going through their minds.

But it's tricky trying to find them.

They've grown up a bit since I last saw them.

Plus, they're wearing masks.

Did you get your ears pierced or have they always been?

They always were.

Really?

So you got your name tag?

Yeah.

How are you feeling?

Actually pretty good, and nervous too at the same time.

Osvaldo?

Yeah?

Hey, how's it going?

Good how are you?

How you feeling about today?

Good.

A little nervous, but good?

Yeah?

Has anything changed since we last talked last summer?

No.

Did you have a good summer?

Yeah it was okay.

ELIZABETH: Back in third grade, Osvaldo struggled with reading.

OSVALDO: "The republic is at"- ELIZABETH: A warning sign when it comes to graduating from high school.

Up... [indistinct] ELIZABETH: That was six years ago, and he's changed a lot.

I wonder how things will go for him in high school.

We will be able to tell everyone's in the right place when all the freshmen are seated.

[all clapping] Good morning.

Thank you.

Welcome to David Douglas High School.

We're so excited to have you here.

Freshman year is one of the most important years in your high school career.

Yeah, everyone is here to work with you to make sure that you have a successful career at David Douglas High School.

ELIZABETH: Ninth graders are the only students attending this first day of school, to help them get the lay of the land on their own.

In 2021, Oregon high schools enrolled about 46,000 freshmen.

But as these students embark on the road to graduation, data shows the pandemic has caused some to fall behind.

Based on the most recent numbers, only 74% of ninth graders are on track to graduate.

At David Douglas, that number was just 63%.

Freshmen are officially off track if they fail any of their required classes, including math.

So these were supposed to be two point, two point, two point, two point.

So eight points total, yikes.

People did really good on these, this was no problem at all.

It was just the A and B.

Number 13... SARAH: Math is the main indicator we use for warning signs for being on track for graduation.

ELIZABETH: Sarah Hunt is a counselor at David Douglas.

She helps students stay on track.

And so if we get to the end of freshman year and they don't have a full year of math, that's a warning sign for us.

And we do send home things that show on track, off track, even at the freshman level.

I've always kind of struggled in math, especially in middle school, and so I'm still like trying to come back from that and really trying to like, get my math knowledge up so I can do better for the next years.

ELIZABETH: Another warning sign is poor attendance.

Students who miss a lot of school significantly increase their risk of dropping out.

I mean, we run our daily attendance rate for the high school, but then we look at students individual rates too, and 90% is kind of the threshold of "That is good."

I mean not great, but that's good 'cause that means in 10 school days you missed one.

And so once we fall below 90, then that's when we...

It's one of the things to- Yeah, one of the the warning signs, yeah.

Missing school is very tough because I miss a lot of assignments and I just had to do them, and all the notes that I missed too.

ELIZABETH: Moving a lot also factors into whether a student will graduate.

Studies show that high mobility rates create additional barriers to completing high school.

This is Raiden.

He's another Class of 2025 student we've been following.

He lives with his mom.

Their family has moved four times since Raiden was in kindergarten.

He now attends Centennial High School, a few miles from David Douglas, in Gresham.

My mom has told me a lot about high school and it depends on your physical life, like what job you get and what you can do in life.

So I've been trying to get my grades up.

ELIZABETH: To help achieve his goals, Raiden gets support from learning specialist Elizabeth Macintosh.

I provide specially designed instruction for students with IEPs in a support class.

An IEP is an individualized education plan, so it's for students who qualify to receive services in special education.

So how was your day today?

Good.

Did anything exciting happen?

I work primarily with students who have autism spectrum disorder or specific learning disability.

'Cause some of those assignments will only take like five or ten minutes.

It's been a pleasure getting to know Raiden over the last couple of months.

He's really friendly, he's very funny, he's very curious.

I would say the biggest challenge for Raiden was probably just the transition back to in-person learning.

He's made a lot of great progress.

I think he's finally hit a rhythm [upbeat music] [upbeat music continues] ELIZABETH: Over at David Douglas, I caught up with another Class of 2025 student, Ava, who's also found a good rhythm.

Yeah, freshman year has been great.

I've made lots of new friends.

I really like the electives I've been taking.

I've been taking choir, theater...

I'll put a copy of it online.

It's been amazing.

I've had lots of energy and I feel a lot more motivated to actually do my school work.

ELIZABETH: Kaylie thought high school would be different.

I feel like it's kind of better that it's not what I expected, because especially when I was younger I thought it was gonna be like "High School Musical" and stuff like that.

ELIZABETH: Instead of the Hollywood version of high school she imagined, Kaylie's learning how to put on high school musicals in stagecraft class.

I plan on doing stagecraft up until I graduate because it's something that I really enjoy doing.

So I wanna try like other things like the sound board and stage manager and things like that, so that I can just try everything and see what I'm really interested in.

♪ We get kicked ♪ ♪ It's a hard knock life for us ♪ ELIZABETH: Music and sports are a way to keep students engaged in school, which in turn helps them stay on track academically.

Anais who struggled with distance learning at home is super social.

But even though she's with friends at school now, she's finding PE class is much harder in person.

Because in quarantine you had to do it in one certain spot in your house or like outside, and you weren't that active because it had kind of like a time limit, and sometimes you would get kicked out of the Google Meets or whatever, but now... Oh man.

ELIZABETH: But sometimes, kids wind up in a place they don't wanna be, facing disciplinary action.

A third main indicator in dropout rates.

When Rayshawn was a first grader, he said he wanted to be a football player when he grows up.

Then as a freshman last fall at David Douglas, he was just a few weeks into the football season when he was caught at school in possession of an airsoft gun.

David Douglas prohibits weapons of any kind.

Rayshawn was suspended for a year.

Now he attends Rosemary Anderson High School, a safety net program located in a former strip mall.

For kids who don't succeed in mainstream schools.

What are the things that are gonna make it challenging to get through high school?

Probably staying focused, like motivation.

At his new school, Rayshawn is doing better academically and feels connected with teachers like Aubrey Williams.

I teach science, health and sociology here at Rosemary Anderson East Campus in Gresham, Oregon.

[sighs] A lot of absences.

Fridays are like that sometimes though ELIZABETH: But getting to graduation isn't always about good grades.

For some, it's a matter of survival.

Hunger, housing insecurity and violence can all be barriers to graduation.

About 100 kids go to this school, but since 2017, nine of them have been killed.

Williams has memorialized those students in her classroom.

I feel like our kids might get a mention in the newspaper.

We might know what happened to them, but then those stories just go away and they very quickly and easily get swept under the rug, and it feels sometimes like nobody thinks about them, but the families are still suffering.

Keion Howard was shot and killed last year.

Sammy West, Hector "Elijah" Ruiz, Isaiah Maza, and Kentraveon Hill and then Alex Martinson.

He was particularly close to me.

I'd had him as a student for three years and we just bonded.

And then Dante McFallo, this is our most recent loss.

He just would quietly and politely come into class for his morning hug.

And I miss that.

I miss that.

It's devastating, but it's the truth, it's the reality right now.

ELIZABETH: Williams and others at Rosemary Anderson see the importance of supporting and teaching these young people as critical to their future.

My man!

ELIZABETH: It's not always in a classroom.

How you doing man?

[scanner beeping] ELIZABETH: Ronnie Wallace is the school's security officer.

How come you aint at school yet, huh?

Yeah, you caught me.

Why you ain't at school yet?

ELIZABETH: He's also the school's PE teacher.

It's all in the wrist.

ELIZABETH: And impromptu guidance counselor.

It's city girl problems.

Uh huh.

You don't know nothing about it.

I know nothing about it, you're right about that.

Basically I just really would love for them to get their education, graduate, you know, and for me to keep them off the streets and keep their mind right.

If I can literally sit up here and talk to 'em, if I can get one not to be in the streets, I did my job.

RAYSHAWN: Going from one school to another felt kind of like, weird.

Yay or nay?

So he can either pass the log... RAYSHAWN: And then, just normal after that.

"Some continued... "Continued on at home."

As a journalist, I try to stay objective.

But it's hard not to care about these kids as they grow up right before my eyes.

[gentle wistful music] [gentle wistful music continues] At David Douglas, it's the last day of school.

Freshman year is over, and the Class of 2025 has finished this leg of the path to graduation.

The story of freshman year is starting off stumbling, and then slowly gaining confidence and friendships.

ELIZABETH: Jaclyn Stewart is a freshman English teacher at David Douglas.

We start with the hero's journey because they're starting their hero's journey in high school.

So we read like, "The Odyssey" and books like that.

At first they were very behind academically.

I would say they were a full year under where they needed to be.

We just recently looked at our assessment data though, and they are averaging at the end of freshman year where they should be, and some have even exceeded that and they're already at the state testing level where the end of sophomore year should be.

So we saw a lot of growth and I think that just goes to show for a lot of students, that in-person instruction is so important.

Just a little bit of applause, celebration.

It's over.

You did it!

ELIZABETH: Learning math in person has also made a difference this year.

I am so, so proud of you.

ELIZABETH: For teachers like Heidi Willis, seeing progress is rewarding.

I'm proud of how hard you've worked, I'm proud of how much you learned.

Especially considering guys, the last full year of school you had was in sixth grade and you showed up at high school and you worked your butt off, and you didn't give up and you kept coming, and you kept trying and some of you dug yourself a little bit of a hole, but man, you just kept climbing.

Coming back from distance learning was very fun.

I feel like I've matured more, and you know, I'm just in better state in mind now.

I think the most challenging part of this year would be getting all my work done.

I'm excited.

I'm really excited about my sophomore year.

I really wanna make new friends and do better with my grades and actually try really hard.

Yay!

I'm closer to being finished with this school!

OPB will keep following the Class of 2025 as they grow up and get through high school.

Will all of them graduate?

We'll be there to find out.

Elizabeth Miller, reporting.

[gentle wistful music] [gentle wistful music ends]