JOHN YANG: Good evening.

Iúm John Yang.

Russia and Ukraine traded heavy drone strikes overnight and into this morning, even as American and Ukrainian officials prepare to talk about how to end the war.

Kyiv says Moscowús bloody weekend of aerial attacks has led to at least 22 deaths.

It comes amid a U.S. freeze on weapons shipments and intelligence sharing.

Russia released this video of what it says are drone strikes on a Ukrainian military column in Russiaús Kursk region.

The Associated Press reports that tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers there are at risk of being encircled.

Tonight, Secretary of State Marco Rubio heads to Saudi Arabia to meet with Ukrainian officials on Tuesday to explore diplomatic paths to ending the war.

John Herbst is the former US Ambassador to Ukraine and Uzbekistan.

Heús now senior director of the Atlantic councilús Eurasia Center.

Mr.

Ambassador, President Trumpús special envoy says the goals of this meeting in Saudi Arabia are to come up with a ceasefire and the framework of a peace agreement.

How likely do you think is that to happen?

JOHN HERBST, Former U.S.

Ambassador to Ukraine: I believe that Moscow would like to continue operations, one, to pick up more Ukrainian territory before sitting down to talk, and two, to drive Ukrainian forces out of Kursk.

If the administrationús objective is to achieve, as it says, a durable peace which leaves Ukraine sovereign, independent, economically viable, then itús going about it the wrong way.

JOHN YANG: Going about it the wrong way?

Why do you say that?

JOHN HERBST: Because Moscow believes, especially because of the gifts that President Trump has been bestowing on him, that it will be able to, in fact, kick the Ukrainians out of Russia and pick up more Ukrainian territory, because we are now weakening Ukraineús defense.

Weúve stopped military shipments, we stopped providing intel, and itús not a surprise that the Russians are trying hard to again conduct an offensive in Kursk, their oblast, where Ukrainian forces have been since August.

JOHN YANG: So ending arms shipments, ending intelligence sharing, you say those are gifts to -- JOHN HERBST: The gifts to Putin.

And he hasnút, quote, unquote, ended it.

Heús paused it.

But first, it seemed to be a pause because of the unfortunate meeting between himself and Zelenskyy on February 28th in the Oval Office.

But then after Zelenskyy apologized and Trump seemed satisfied, they put on new conditions like, now, this will be paused until we see peace talks really starting to move or negotiations set so undetermined.

And again, Putin is taking advantage of this absence of American help to make gains on the battlefield.

So if you want to empower Putin the aggressor, do exactly what youúre doing.

Now, Iúm not saying thatús Trumpús goal, but thatús the impact of his decisions.

JOHN YANG: On this point there was an interview with Mr. Trump that was broadcast this morning on Fox News, and he was asked whether heús being tough on Russia.

And hereús what he had to say.

DONALD TRUMP, U.S. President: I think Iúve been very tough to Russia, tougher than anybodyús ever been to Russia.

Putin would be the first to say it.

Nobodyús been tougher than Trump.

JOHN YANG: What do you say to that?

JOHN HERBST: Well, if heús talking about his decision in 2017 to give javelins to Ukraine, I say thatús absolutely right.

Obama was too timid to do that.

If youúre talking about now.

Well, no, heús again taken serious measures that are weakening Ukraineús ability to defend itself.

And heús done nothing to the aggressor, I believe, because heús being criticized precisely along these lines.

He said, well, maybe weúll put some economic pressure on him.

But he talks about economic pressure on Russia.

He takes strong measures against Ukraine.

Itús easy to see whatús going on.

JOHN YANG: In that Oval Office meeting you referred to.

He told Zelenskyy that he didnút have the cards to keep going.

Using that analogy, what kind of hand is Vladimir Putin holding?

JOHN HERBST: The President just took several cards out of Zelenskyyús hands.

One, stopping American military shipments, Two, stopping Americans intel sharing.

And three, weúre hearing reports that heús trying to stop European supplies from getting to Ukraine.

Theyúre trying to stop commercial satellite companies from providing imagery which could help Ukraine now that they donút have American intelligence.

So these are all cards heús taking out of the hand of the weaker party of the victim.

So this may be a self-fulfilling statement.

JOHN YANG: I want to ask you also about the broader Europe, U.S.-European relationship.

Weúve heard France say that, essentially say that weúre on our own now, weúre going to use our own nuclear weapons as deterrent.

Whatús this done to the, to that alliance?

JOHN HERBST: Well, it has certainly shaken the alliance and not just in Europe.

People around the world are seeing this and I think itús based upon an approach that doesnút understand how our alliance system has served our interests greatly.

Not perfectly.

Trumpús right and heús done well at getting our allies to spend more on defense.

But this alliance system has been the pillar of world peace since the end of World War II.

Itús been not the only reason, but the principal reason why there has not been a major war between great powers.

And thereús no question that the greatest danger to the United States is when major wars, if weúre in a major war with a great power, and the way you bungle into a major war with an adversary, a major adversary, is to appear weak.

And I have to say the administration right now, it appears, if not weak, then fatuous.

JOHN YANG: Former ambassador John Herbst, thank you very much.

JOHN HERBST: My pleasure.