>> AND NOW TO THE U. S. , WHERE ONE IN TEN MEN OF PRIME WORKING AGE ARE NOT WORKING.

CONSERVATIVE EXPLANATIONS POINT TO THE DECLINE IN MANUFACTURING JOBS AND A FEMINIZED WORKPLACE.

BUT ACCORDING TO OUR NEXT GUESTS, THE JOBS EXIST.

THE INCENTIVE TO TAKE THEM DOES NOT.

THE CRISIS THEY SAY IS MOST PREVALENT AMONG WHITE RURAL MEN.

BRENT ORRELL AND KEITH HUMPHREYS JOIN MICHEL MARTIN TO UNPACK WHAT'S REALLY DRIVING MEN'S DISCONNECT FROM THE WORLD OF WORK AND HOW TO FIX IT.

>> THANKS, PAULA.

KEITH HUMPHREYS, BRENT ORRELL, THANK YOU BOTH SO MUCH FOR JOINING ME.

>> THANK YOU.

>> THANK YOU.

>> OKAY, SO PROFESSOR HUMPHREYS, YOU ARE A PROFESSOR OF PSYCHIATRY AT STANFORD, AND AN ADDICTION RESEARCHER, AND MR.

ORRELL, YOU'RE A WORKFORCE POLICY EXPERT AT THE AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE.

YOU PREVIOUSLY WORKED AT THE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.

YOU'VE WRITTEN A PIECE THAT --NOT TO BE FLIPPANT ABOUT IT, BUT THIS IS THE KIND OF THING MOMS AND GIRLFRIENDS ARE ASKING THEMSELVES WHICH IS WHY AREN'T ALL THESE MEN WORKING, OKAY.

YOU POINT OUT THAT ROUGHLY 6.

7 MILLION AMERICAN MEN BETWEEN THE AGES OF 25 AND 54 ARE OUTSIDE THE LABOR FORCE.

THAT'S WHAT PEOPLE WHO OUGHT TO BE IN THEIR PRIME WORKING YEARS.

SO THE FIRST THING I WANTED TO ASK YOU, AND MAYBE PROFESSOR HUMPHREYS, YOU'LL START WITH THIS, WHAT MADE YOU LOOK AT THIS QUESTION?

WHAT PARKED THAT QUERY?

>> BRENT AND I SERVE AT THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION THAT AI HAVE.

AND TRAVELING AROUND THE COUNTRY, I'VE JUST BEEN STRUCK BY THIS DISCONNECT OF TALKING TO PEOPLE IN COMMUNITIES WHERE THEY TALK WE HAVE A LOT OF YOUNG MEN WHO ARE NOT WORK AND NOT APPLYING FOR WORK AND DISENGAGED.

AND THEY SAY THERE IS NO JOBS OF THE SORT THEY WANT TO DO.

BUT THEN I MEET WITH EMPLOYERS, AND THEY SAY WE HAVE JOBS, GOOD JOBS WITH NICE WAGES AND BENEFITS DOING MANLY KINDS OF THINGS LIKE LOGGING OR SHIP BUILDING OR SO ON.

AND THESE YOUNG MEN DON'T APPLY, OR IF THEY DO APPLY, THEY HAVE --THEY DON'T KNOW HOW TO WORK.

THEY DON'T KNOW YOU HAVE TO SHOW UP EVERY DAY AND ALSO THAT YOU CAN'T GET HIGH ON YOUR BREAK AND THINGS LIKE THAT.

SO THAT DISCONNECT IS WHAT GOT ME INTERESTED IN WHAT IS EXACTLY GOING ON WITH THESE MEN.

>> MR.

ORRELL, ONE OF THE REASONS THIS IS SO INTRIGUING IS THIS HAS BEEN SO MUCH A PART OF THE POLITICAL DISCOURSE FOR THE LAST FEW YEARS.

SAY OH, MANUFACTURING JOBS HAVE DISAPPEARED.

FACTORIES HAVE MOVED OVERSEAS.

WAGES ARE STAGNANT.

THOSE ARE ALL THINGS THAT ARE TRUE.

BUT YOU POINT OUT THAT IN AUGUST, THERE WERE ROUGHLY 800,000 OPENINGS IN INDUSTRIES LIKE CONSTRUCTION, MANUFACTURING, AND MINING, WHAT PROFESSOR HUMPHREYS WAS JUST TALKING ABOUT.

SO WHO ARE THESE MEN WHO AREN'T WORKING?

>> I THINK WE'VE GOT A LARGE NUMBER OF MEN WHO ARE SIGNIFICANTLY DISABLED WHO NEED THE INCOME PROVIDED BY SOCIAL SECURITY DISABILITY INCOME AND OTHER PUBLIC SUPPORT PROGRAMS.

I DON'T THINK THERE IS ANY QUESTION ABOUT THAT.

I DO THINK THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF MEN WHO PERHAPS ARE NOT ON PUBLIC PROGRAMS, BUT ALSO NOT IN THE WORKFORCE.

WHAT WE ARGUE IN THE PIECE IS THAT THERE HAVE BEEN STRUCTURAL CHANGES IN THE WORKFORCE SINCE THE 1960s WHEN THIS WAS AT AN ALL- TIME HIGH, 95% OF MEN WERE IN THE WORKFORCE.

THERE ARE STRUCTURAL CHANGES THAT HAVE ELIMINATED CATEGORIES OF WORK THAT MEN RELIED UPON, MAINLY THOSE MANUFACTURING JOBS.

BUT THAT'S NOW ALMOST 16 YEARS AGO.

WE'RE TALKING ABOUT.

THAT CAN'T EXPLAIN WHAT'S HAPPENING RIGHT NOW IN TERMS OF THE SIX MILLION MEN WHO ARE NOT IN THE WORKFORCE OR NOT LOOKING FOR WORK.

WHAT WE ARGUE IS THAT BECAUSE THE COUNTRY IS SO MUCH RICHER THAN IT WAS IN 1916, TWENTYFOLD INCREASE IN GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, WE'VE HAD, YOU KNOW, A REALLY LARGE EXPANSION OF WELFARE STATE IN THIS COUNTRY.

AND I'M NOT BEING CRITICAL OF THAT.

WE NEED THOSE PROGRAMS.

BUT IT HAS SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH NOT WORKING.

IN ADDITION, YOU'VE HAD TENS OF MILLIONS OF WOMEN JOIN THE WORKFORCE.

SO THAT COMBINATION ECONOMIC GROWTH, THE EXPANSION OF THE WELFARE NET AND THE PARTICIPATION OF MANY MORE WOMEN IN THE WORKFORCE COMBINED TO CREATE A SITUATION IN WHICH THE RISK OF NOT WORKING IS SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED.

>> VERY OFTEN THESE MEN ARE BEING CARRIED BY A WOMAN ECONOMICALLY.

THEY'VE MOVED BACK HOME OR THEY HAVE A GIRLFRIEND.

WHAT'S SAD, THERE IS A LOT OF MISOGYNISTIC EXPLANATIONS IN THE MANISPHERE ABOUT HOW WOMEN FEM NICE THE WORKPLACE AND MEN DON'T HAVE ANY REAL JOBS ANYMORE.

BUT THE TRUTH IS WITHOUT WOMEN'S SUPPORT, THESE MEN WOULD BE IN A LOT OF TROUBLE.

>> ONE OF THE THINGS I WANT TO PICK UP ON IS ONE OF THE MORE STRIKING FINDINGS IN YOUR PIECE IS THE WAY SOME OF THESE MEN ARE SPENDING THEIR TIME.

RESEARCH SAYS THEY WATCH AN AVERAGE OF 5 1/2 HOURS OF TELEVISION AND MOVIES A DAY, NOT A WEEK, A DAY, ON TOP OF ACTIVITIES LIKE GAMING AND PORNOGRAPHY.

YOU ALSO POINT OUT TO MARIJUANA USE.

MORE THAN A QUARTER OF MEN WHO ARE NOT EMPLOYED USE MARIJUANA DAILY OR NEARLY DAILY.

SE SO THE QUESTION I HAVE IS WHAT'S THE CHICKEN AND WHAT'S THE EGG?

ARE THEY SELF- MEDICATING BECAUSE THEY'RE NOT WORKING, OR THE FACT THAT THEY'RE SELF-MEDICATING MEANS THEY'RE NOT ABLE TO WORK?

>> THAT WOULD BE A TOUGH GORDIAN KNOT TO CUT IN HALF BECAUSE YOU CAN EASILY IMAGINE BOTH THINGS HAPPENING.

WHERE WE FOCUS A LOT, AS WE SHOULD ON THE CHANGES OF THE STRUCTURE OF WORK.

BUT THE STRUCTURE OF NOT WORKING IS UTTERLY DIFFERENT BECAUSE THE ECONOMY HAS PRODUCED A LARGE AMOUNT OF VERY, VERY CHEAP AND ADDICTIVE SORT OF TRANSITORY ENTERTAINMENTS LIKE GAMBLING, LIKE MARIJUANA, LIKE PORNOGRAPHY, LIKE SURFING ON SOCIAL MEDIA AND THAT SORT OF THING.

AND THAT IS ENTICING, AND PROBABLY KEEPS A CERTAIN AMOUNT OF THESE MEN OUT OF THE WORKFORCE BECAUSE DAY TO DAY, THAT IS REWARDING IN THE SHORT- TERM, EVEN THOUGH IF YOU LOOK AT IN THE LONG-TERM, IT'S NOT TAKING THEM ANYWHERE GOOD.

THERE WILL BE AN END IF THEY DON'T STOP DOING THAT FIVE, TEN YEARS FROM NOW, IT'S JUST GOING TO GET HARDER AND HARDER.

AND SO PART OF WHAT THE SOLUTION HERE IS WE SHOULD PUT SOME CONSTRAINTS ON THOSE INDUSTRIES, SO BRENT AND I ARGUE.

WE DON'T NEED TO HAVE.

WE DID FIND THIS COUNTRY WITHOUT SPORTS GAMBLING BEING EVERYWHERE AND EVERY PLACE FOR A LONG TIME.

WE CAN GO BACK TO MARIJUANA IS NOW SUPER CHEAP WITH REGULATION.

WE CAN TREAT IT MORE LIKE TOBACCO WHERE WE TRY TO TAX IT AND RESTRICT IT SO FEWER PEOPLE GET ADDICTED TO IT.

THOSE TYPE OFS OF THINGS WOULD REDUCE THE INCENTIVES TO SORT OF STAY IN THE STATE WHERE YOU'RE NOT ENGAGED IN THE WORKFORCE AND DOING THINGS THAT MAKE YOU LESS READY TO WORK THAN YOU WERE ALREADY.

>> THE IDLENESS ITSELF CREATES A VACUUM.

THE VACUUM HAS TO BE FILLED SOMEHOW.

SO IN THE MODERN WORLD, WE FILL THAT VACUUM WITH ELECTRONICS AND ELECTRONIC MEDIA.

AND SO YOU DON'T HAVE TO SAY THAT THESE THINGS CAUSE THE WITHDRAWAL FROM WORK.

THEY DO ANCHOR PEOPLE IN NOT WORKING.

THEY TEND TO ANCHOR PEOPLE IN THAT BECAUSE IT'S SO COMPARATIVELY PLEASANT, ESPECIALLY RELATIVE TO SHOWING UP TO A JOB.

>> BUT YOU POINT OUT THIS INTERESTING DOUBLE STANDARD ON HOW WE'VE TALKED ABOUT MEN WHO ARE NOT WORKING.

WHEN BLACK MEN IN URBAN COMMUNITIES WERE LOSING JOBS BECAUSE OF THESE STRUCTURAL CHANGES THAT YOU TALK ABOUT, CONSERVATIVES BASICALLY DISMISSED IT.

THEY SAID OH, IT'S A LACK OF WORK ETHIC.

THEY MADE IT BASICALLY A PROBLEM OF THEM, LIKE THEY HAD SOME CHARACTER FLAW AS A GROUP, OKAY.

BUT NOW THAT WE'RE SEEING SIMILAR STRUGGLES AMONG WHITE MEN, THE EXPLANATION IS IT'S GLOBALIZATION, IT'S IMMIGRATION, IT'S DISAPPEARING FACTORY JOBS.

SO NOW THE POLITICAL SYSTEM IS SORT OF TAKING IT SERIOUSLY.

WHAT I IS THAT?

>> WHAT YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT IS HOW WILLIAM JULIUS WILSON IN THE 1990s IN THE LATE 90s SAID ABOUT BLACK MEN, IT ISN'T THAT THESE MEN LEFT WORK, IT'S THE WORK LEFT THEM.

THERE IS A GEOGRAPHIC MISMATCH BETWEEN WORKERS AND JOBS.

SO THAT WAS WHAT EXPLAINED IT.

CONSERVATIVES REALLY PUSHED BACK ON THAT AND SAID NO, NO, THIS IS A CULTURAL ISSUE.

THIS IS AN ETHICAL ISSUE.

THIS IS A CHARACTER ISSUE.

BLACK MEN JUST DON'T WANT TO WORK.

>> YEAH, THEIR CULTURE.

>> YEAH, IT'S A CULTURAL PROBLEM.

AND NOW THAT WE'RE FOCUSED ON NONWORK AMONG WHITE MEN, MANY CONSERVATIVES WANT TO SAY THAT THIS IS A STRUCTURAL ISSUE, THAT IT'S IMMIGRATION, THAT IT'S TRADE.

THEY'VE DISCOVERED THEIR INNER STRUCTURALIST, YOU KNOW.

SO THERE IS A REAL --THERE IS A LOT OF HYPOCRISY, I THINK, UP AND DOWN THE LADDER ON THIS.

AND WHAT WE NEED TO SAY IS IT IS BOTH STRUCTURAL PROBLEMS, CHANGES IN THE LABOR FORCE, CHANGES IN THE NEEDS OF THE ECONOMY AND CULTURAL PROBLEMS THAT ARE MUTUALLY REINFORCING AND THAT LEAD PEOPLE TO WORK AND KEEP THEM THERE.

THEN THERE ARE MANY, MANY WHO STAY AT HOME TO TAKE CARE OF THE KIDS BECAUSE THEIR WIVES MAKE MORE MONEY.

THE PROBLEM IS ISOLATED MEN WHO ARE WITHDRAWING FROM THE WORKFORCE, WHO ARE THEN IMMERSING THEMSELVES IN A LOT OF UNHELPFUL ACTIVITY.

>> SO TELL ME HOW WE BREAK THIS CYCLE.

THIS IS SOMETHING BOTH OF YOU TALKED ABOUT ON THE PIECE.

>> IT'S ALWAYS TRUE.

LIFE IS A MIXTURE OF THE ENVIRONMENT BUT ALSO THE CHOICES WE MAKE.

AND THE MESSAGE THAT COMES THROUGH SOMETIMES FROM POLITICIAN.

SO IF YOU'RE ONLINE TO THESE MEN WHO ARE NOT WORKING IS YOU CAN'T DO ANYTHING ABOUT THIS, YOU KNOW.

THE POLICYMAKERS SENT THESE JOBS AWAY.

THE ONES THAT ARE LEFT ARE BEING STOLEN BY IMMIGRANTS AND WOMEN ARE RUNNING AN HR COMPLEX THAT IS KEEPING YOU OUT.

THAT IS ENRAGING, BUT IT'S ALSO COMPLETELY DEMORALIZING YOU'RE NOT GOING TO GET OFF THE COUCH BECAUSE IT FEELS LIKE THERE IS NO HOPE SO.

WE NEED PEOPLE TO ARTICULATE, PEOPLE WHO HAVE A PURCHASE WITH YOUNG MEN WHO SAY YES, THERE IS HOPE, ABSOLUTELY.

AND INSTEAD OF RESENTING, FOR EXAMPLE, WOMEN FOR THEM WANTING A GUY WHO CAN PROVIDE, DO IT AS A CHALLENGE THAT YOU SHOULD MEET.

YOU SHOULD BECOME A BETTER MAN TO BE WORTHY OF THOSE COMPLETELY REASONABLE EXPECTATIONS.

THERE ARE MANY, MANY INSTITUTIONS THAT DO HELP MEN FORM CHARACTER THAT ANY OF US ARE CAPABLE OF PARTICIPATING, WHETHER IT'S THE BIG BROTHERS, BIG SISTER, 4-H SCHOOLS, WHERE THAT CAN BE PART OF A SOLUTION.

A LOT OF SCHOOLS DURING COVID WENT TO A MODEL OF NOT REALLY CARING IF PEOPLE SHOWED UP AND BEING INCREDIBLY FORGIVING IF YOU DIDN'T DO YOUR HOMEWORK AND ALL THAT WELL, THAT'S PAST.

WE'RE RETURNING TO THAT THING PART OF WHAT WE'RE TEACHING YOUNG PEOPLE, YOUNG BOYS IS NOT JUST THAT THE ACTUAL CONTENT, BUT THERE ARE THESE PLACES IN LIFE WHERE YOU HAVE TO SHOW UP, AND THERE ARE CONSEQUENCES WHEN YOU DON'T, AND YOU HAVE TO TRY HARD AND YOU HAVE TO WORK ON A TEAM, AND YOU'RE GOING TO BE HELD ACCOUNTABLE.

THOSE ARE REALLY HEALTHY MESSAGES THAT WE WANT TO PUSH THROUGH EVERY INSTITUTION SO THAT TO THE MEN THEMSELVES ARE MOTIVATED TO NOT LIVE THIS WAY.

>> MR.

ORRELL, DO YOU WANT TO JUMP IN ON THIS TOO?

I KNOW THAT'S ONE OF THE THINGS YOU REALLY WANT TO FOCUS ON IS WHAT ARE SOME OF THE CONCRETE WAYS THAT YOU CAN POINT YOUNG MEN TOWARD WORK.

>> A COUPLE OF THINGS I THINK NEED TO BE DONE, ONE OF WHICH IS WE NEED TO LOOK VERY CLOSELY AT SSDI, SOCIAL SECURITY DISABILITY INCOME PROGRAM AND ASK TWO QUESTIONS.

FIRST OF ALL, ARE WE LETTING TOO MANY PEOPLE IN?

AND CAN WE TIGHTEN THE STANDARDS SO THAT WE'RE, AGAIN, NOT TO CUT PEOPLE OFF, BUT TO JUST NUDGE THEM BACK AND SAY AND ASK THE QUESTION IS THIS REALLY NECESSARY.

WHAT ELSE CAN WE DO TO SUPPORT YOU AS A WORKER.

AND THAT'S THE SECOND REFORM I THINK.

THAT'S THE STICK.

WE NEED TO BE CARROTS AS WELL.

I THINK ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT CARROTS IS PROBABLY TO LOOK AT HOW DO WE INCREASE THE VALUE OF WORK FOR MEN IN A SIMILAR WAY TO WHAT WE DID WITH WELFARE RECIPIENT S S SO AN EITC THAT WAS AVAILABLE TO MEN WHO DON'T HAVE KIDS, YOU KNOW, THEY'RE LOW INCOME, THEY'RE WORKING MINIMUM WAGE JOBS, CAN FIGURE OUT A WAY TO PLUS UP THEIR INCOME SO THAT THAT WORK FEELS MORE REMUNATIVE AND PROVIDES A GREATER INCENTIVE.

SO I THINK THOSE ARE TWO OF THE REALLY IMPORTANT THINGS THAT WE CAN DO WITHIN PUBLIC POLICY.

AND THEN I THINK KEITH IS ABSOLUTELY RIGHT.

WE HAVE TO LOOK TO THE OTHER INSTITUTIONS OF SOCIETY TO HELP CARRY THIS MESSAGE THAT WORK IS THE NORM.

IDLENESS IS NOT THE NORM.

WORK IS THE NORM.

AND WE EXPECT, WE HAVE AN EXPECTATION OF MEN IN THIS COUNTRY THAT THEY ARE GOING TO CONTRIBUTE TO THEIR OWN MAINTENANCE AND TO THE MAINTENANCE OF THEIR FAMILIES.

>> BUT, AGAIN, I HAVE TO GO BACK TO THE STRUCTURAL QUESTION.

THE FACT IS JUST THE NUMBERS ALONE, IN YOUR PIECE, 6.

7 MILLION AMERICAN IN THESE PRIME WORKING YEARS OUTSIDE THE LABOR FORCE.

BUT YOU ONLY IDENTIFY UNDER A MILLION JOB OPENINGS IN THESE SPECIFIC INDUSTRIES LIKE CONSTRUCTION.

THAT'S SORRY.

THERE IS STILL A HUGE GAP BETWEEN WORK THAT'S AVAILABLE AND THE MEN WHO PRESUMABLY MIGHT WANT TO DO THAT WORK.

ESPECIALLY NOW THAT WE'RE TALKING ABOUT, YOU KNOW, I'M NOT TAKING A POSITION ON THE VALUE, THE BENEFITS AND LIABILITIES OF AI, BUT THE REALITY OF IT IS THAT AI IS HERE, AND IT IS GOING TO ELIMINATE CERTAIN KINDS OF JOBS.

THERE IS JUST NO QUESTION.

SO WHAT'S THE ANSWER TO THAT?

>> I THINK THAT THE OPENINGS, THE JOB OPENINGS NUMBERS UNDERSTATE WHAT IS ACTUALLY HAPPENING.

WE DO --WITH EVERY MONTH THE U. S. ECONOMY CREATES AND DESTROYS A WHOLE BUNCH OF JOBS.

THERE IS A LOT OF FLUIDITY IN THE MARKET.

AND I THINK DESPITE SOME OF THE FEARS ABOUT AI AND THE WAY IT MAY DISPLACE, WE DON'T REALLY HAVE ANY EVIDENCE FOR THAT YET, BUT DESPITE THOSE FEARS, IF YOU TALK TO MANUFACTURERS, IN FACT, THE MANUFACTURING INSTITUTE PUT OUT A REPORT TALKING ABOUT THE HUNGER, THE NEED FOR WORKERS WITHIN THE MANUFACTURING SECTOR THAT GOES BEYOND WHAT WE SEE IN TERMS OF THE OPENINGS, AND THE ECONOMY IS GOING TO CONTINUE TO GROW.

AND AS THE ECONOMY GROWS, WE'RE GOING NEED EVERY SINGLE WORKER WE CAN FIND IN ORDER TO SUSTAIN ECONOMIC GROWTH.

SO I WOULD NOT -- I WOULD BE TRAPPED BY THAT 800,000 NUMBER.

I THINK THAT NUMBER UNDERSTATES WHAT'S ACTUALLY AVAILABLE IN THE ECONOMY FOR PEOPLE WHO HAVE SKILLS AND HAVE DRIVE TO BE IN THE WORKFORCE AND THAT'S WHAT WE NEED TO FOCUS ON.

HOW DO WE HELP THOSE --HELP THOSE MEN WHO ARE OUT OF THE WORKFORCE REDISCOVER WORK AS A PRIMARY VALUE IN THEIR LIVES.

IT'S NOT EASY.

WE WILL NOT SOLVE THIS OVERNIGHT.

WE DIDN'T SOLVE IT OVERNIGHT FOR WOMEN.

WE ARE NOT GOING TO SOLVE IT OVERNIGHT FOR MEN.

BUT WE HAVE TO START WORKING AT IT.

.

>> PROFESSOR HUMPHREYS, FINAL THOUGHT FROM YOU.

>> ONE REACTION I'VE HAD, WHICH HAS BEEN VERY INTERESTING IS PEOPLE WRITING, SAYING, YOU KNOW, YOU SHOULD BE BLAMING CORPORATIONS.

THAT'S WHY, YOU KNOW, I'M SITTING HERE ALL DAY GAMBLING AND USING CANNABIS, AND MY THOUGHT IS, YEAH, I BLAME THE GAMBLING CORPORATION AND THE CANNABIS CORPORATIONS.

WE HAVE TO REMEMBER THAT CORPORATIONS ARE PREYING ON NONWORK.

AND WE NEED TO RELATE THEM BECAUSE THOSE ARE NOT HARMS ANYONE SHOULD BE EXPOSED TO, BUT SEEM TO BE PARTICULARLY HARMFUL FOR THIS GROUP OF MEN.

>> KEITH HUMPHREYS, BRENT ORRELL, THANK YOU BOTH SO MUCH FOR SPEAKING WITH ME.

>> THANK YOU, ABSOLUTELY.

>> THANK YOU.

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